Tuesday, May 3, 2011

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Lebanon

(Lebanon Twitte)-Beleaguered Syrian authorities are seeking negotiations with opposition leaders to end six weeks of unprecedented street protests that threaten to topple the Assad regime, according to Western diplomatic sources. They say that Bouthaina Shaaban, a top adviser to President Bashar al-Assad, has been placed in charge of exploring ways to launch a dialogue.


Alredy deeply divided Lebanon, with no government since January, now faces extra risks from instability in its powerful neighbour Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad is staging a violent crackdown on pro-democracy protesters.


Syrian Opposition sources said Syrian troops have been seen in northern Lebanon in pursuit of alleged Islamic insurgents. They said the Syrian Army has been deployed on both sides of the border in an effort to stop people from fleeing to Lebanon.
Meanwhile, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood issued a rare statement: "You were born free, so don't let a tyrant enslave you.


The domestic political crisis and the spillover effects of the turmoil in Syria are damaging the Lebanese economy, expected to grow only 2.5 percent this year, down from 7.5 percent in 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund.


The Syrian Days of Rage Facebook page, a forum for the protest movement, claimed that security forces transported 244 bodies over the weekend from Deraa to the Tishreen hospital in Damascus. Citing “a very authoritative medical source,” it added that 81 dead soldiers also were transported from Deraa, showing wounds that suggested they had been shot by their fellow soldiers.


The prolonged political uncertainty in Lebanon, now coupled with turmoil in Syria and elsewhere, is taking its toll on an economy badly in need of reform and infrastructure investment.


Apart from lower growth, the IMF report also forecast that inflation would rise to 6.5 percent from 4.5 percent in 2010 and that the fiscal deficit would widen to 10.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 7.2 percent last year.
But even if a proper government was in place, higher food and fuel prices have increased public discontent, making it harder to implement any austerity measures.

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